Data Analysis: What is Alexander s ability to commit fouls?

In the first game of the NBA playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder easily won at home, but the team star Alexander was controversial because of the number of fouls being punished. After the game, Timberwolves coach Chris Finch also expressed dissatisfaction. He said: "There are a lot of frustration on the court, and our players are frustrated that Alexander frequently gets whistles for fouls."

Although Alexander was successfully elected as the regular season MVP today, his reputation among fans has declined due to yesterday's game. Many fans criticized him as the "king of beggars" (king of fouls). Is that true? Today's players' test will give me a brief analysis through the data.

First clarify a concept. There is a contradictory relationship between players being violated and deliberately creating fouls. When players are really violated by defensively, they must call fouls in order to protect the rights and fairness of the game. Fans all agree with this point. Fans cannot agree with the body whistle, air whistle, or performances that obviously have exaggerated acting elements, but NBA technical statistics definitely cannot distinguish the two forms, so I will put the overall data as a reference.

In the regular season of this season, the player who was fouled the most was Antetokounmpo. He suffered a total of 507 fouls, Alexander was fouled 467 times, Trae Young was fouled 430 times, Brunson and Jokic were tied for 410 times, and Shin Kyung was fouled 406 times, and Shin Kyung was 5th.

When you suffer a foul, what can directly gain is being fouled while shooting, so you can get two free throw opportunities or even extra free throws. Let's look at this data again. Antetokounmpo was fouled by shooting 353 times, Alexander was fouled by shooting 280 times, Harden was fouled by shooting 238 times, Edwards was fouled by shooting 233 times, and DeRozan was fouled by shooting 221 times.

In his past commentary, Zhang Weiping often emphasized an experienced method of playing, that is, as long as the whistle sounds, no matter who fouls, he will throw the ball to the basket first. In this way, if the referee determines that it is a shooting foul, he can directly get a free throw opportunity. Of course, the referee now has a stricter judgment on whether it is a shooting action and a coherent action. By comparing the overall foul number and the shooting foul number, it can also be seen that Antetokounmpo and Alexander are more determined and lethal in the box, and the number of fouls being shot is proportional to the overall foul number, but Trae Young, Brunson, Jokic, and Shin Kyung are not lethal enough, and shooting out the phone will be limited, so seizing the opportunity to commit fouls is definitely a technical job and a talent (Harden confidently raised his head).

But I also have to analyze why Alexander and Antetokounmpo were so many fouls. To put it simply, the closer they get to the basket and the more physical contact they cause, the easier it is to commit fouls.

Everyone knows Antetokounmpo's style of playing, with monster-level physical talent and athletic ability, the most dominant inside line (scoring) in the league, combining strength, speed and explosive power, and averaged 19.5 points in the small penalty area per game in the regular season, ranking first in the league, and one-on-one defense in the inside line is difficult to limit him. In addition, his height of 2.11 meters can still break through the ball like a defender. Although he only ranked 18th in the league in the number of 816 breakthroughs, he was only ranked 212 free throws, but he ranked fourth in the league in the league by fouling the breakthrough. He ranked 212 free throws. He can really not stop him if he breaks out. Moreover, Antetokounmpo has a shortcut to free throws, and he made 1 of 2 free throws for a long time, and the foul benefits are very high, so the opponent is very determined to foul Antetokounmpo. Whether it brings the impression to fans or referees, the opponent is super obvious foul, and he must be blown away.

Then he went to Alexander, who was a historical assaulter. Since the breakthrough technical statistics in the NBA in 2013, he set a record last season to increase the number of breakthroughs to 1,748, more than twice as many as Antetokounmpo. Last season, the shooting percentage of breakthroughs reached 57.3%, and he hit the basket with the ball and more than 20 times in every game. Anyone who has played knows that breakthroughs consume a lot of physical energy, and he has to obey Alexander.

This season, he broke through 1,567 times with the ball, ranked first in the league, and still ranked first in the league in 20 breakthroughs. His shooting percentage through the attacking box is 56.7%, ranking third in the league, only lower than Halliburton and Antetokounmpo. With this breakthrough frequency and attacking box efficiency, he will be free to break to the basket, so many opponents must defend him in a targeted manner. Assistant defense and small moves are necessary means, which gives the referee a point to call fouls.

Alexander relies on breakthroughs to create free throw opportunities 294 times this season, ranking first in the league. The number of breakthroughs is to create free throw opportunities every 5.3 breakthroughs. Then we look at the efficiency of the top five players in the breakthrough list.

Trey Young broke through 1,302 times and received 181 free throws, creating one free throw for every 7.1 breakthrough.

Cunningham broke through 1199 times, and received 186 free throws, creating one free throw every 6.4 breakthroughs.

Harden broke through 1,166 times in total, and received 227 free throws, creating one free throw every 5.1 breakthrough.

Brunson broke through 1157 times in total, and received 184 free throws, creating one free throw every 6.2 breakthroughs.

So I can see that in terms of breakthrough foul ability, Harden is still the leader, and Alexander is now close to his level.

Of course, breaking through and getting free throws is only one aspect. All free throws are fouls. In terms of total free throws, Antetokounmpo has won 707 free throws this season, Alexander has won 669 free throws, Harden has won 578 free throws, Trae Young has won 4th free throws, Edwards has won 4th free throws, 4th free throws, 496 free throws.

But as mentioned earlier, Antetokounmpo's free throw is a huge shortcoming. He got so many free throw opportunities and ended up scoring only 436 free throws, with a free throw shooting percentage of only 61.7%, while Alexander made 569 free throws and a free throw shooting percentage of 89.8%. Although Antetokounmpo suffered the most fouls and had many free throw opportunities, the return on fouls alone was far lower than Alexander, which belonged to Liu Huaqiang against Feng Biao - giving the opportunity to miss it.

Then look at the dependence on free throws, it means that the free throw score accounts for the percentage of the total score. Among all the players in the league who have played more than 50 games and played for more than 10 minutes, the old fried doughman Harden ranks first in the league with 28% of the free throw score, Trae Young ranks second in the league with 26.7%, Lillard ranks third in the league with 25.1%, Plumley ranks fourth in the league with 24.9%, Dwight Powell ranks fifth in the 24.5%, Prosper ranks sixth in the 24.4%, and Alexander ranks seventh in the scoring arsenal of these people, which accounts for as much as one-quarter of the scoring points, and Alexander is still the scoring leader, so his free throw returns are the highest.

Then I used the regular season data to summarize a per-game foul income data, which means that he is the level of fouls created in each game. Then I used this data to compare the number of calls from controversial games to see if the referee is taking special care or an objective manifestation of his own ability.

Alexander averaged 6.1 fouls per game, including 3.6 fouls per game and 8.8 free throw opportunities. Free throw scores account for 24.2% of the total score, and 7.9 points per game were fouled directly.

In the first round of the Grizzlies series, they were fouled 5.25 times per game (the foul data cannot be counted in the specific game), they averaged 8.3 free throw opportunities, and the free throw score accounted for 27% of the total score, and the fouled return averaged 7.5 points per game. It can be seen that this round of series is lower than the regular season standard, but it must be said that the Grizzlies are weak and have not caused too many difficulties to Alexander.

The second round of the Denver Nuggets has the most valuable content. He averaged 6.6 fouls per game and got 9 free throw opportunities. His free throw score accounts for 25% of the total score. His foul returns averaged 7.4 points per game. It can be seen that the call has slightly improved compared to the regular season standards, but under the high-intensity defensive intensity, Alexander's free throw shooting percentage has actually declined.

Then it was the first game against the Timberwolves yesterday. He was fouled 12 times and got 14 free throw opportunities. The free throw score accounts for 35.5% of the total score, and the free throw return scored 11 points. Through the comparison, it can be seen that the penalty in this game is much higher than the average standard in the regular season, so the Timberwolves are not convinced.

Statistics emphasizes the objectivity of the amount of big data, but there is also the chance of single-game data. Sometimes when both sides are angry and competing, it is normal that the number of fouls surges. The NBA officials are definitely unwilling to have more fouls and more free throws, especially if there are too many controversial penalty, which will have a huge negative impact on the smoothness of the game and the ratings.

Now we can draw a conclusion that Alexander is the second most fouled star in the regular season, but because of his excellent free throw skills, he is the star with the highest returns after being fouled in the league. Apart from the technical and tactical blows against opponents, he scored 601 points in the free throw and ranked second, Harden's 505 points.

A player's playing style is difficult to change, and it is the strongest return and return skill, so the Timberwolves still need to deal with it in a targeted manner and find a more stable defensive strategy. In addition, they also hope that the referee can master the penalty standards and make the highest level of punishment. Finally, they hope that Alexander can perform more convincingly.