The market is cold winter! The two core contract renewal dilemma

Looking back at this offseason pull, Bain fired the first shot in the trading market, and then Porter Jr. was taken off by the Nuggets, and Durant's transfer to the Rockets was once a hot topic. Due to the market trend in recent years, if it weren't for a few unexpected buyouts, several players who were originally highly paid appeared in the free market, almost no big names would have entered the free market. After Ayton, Lillard, and Bill found their place, it seems that there would be no more key news in the market.

This also makes us refocus on two restricted free agents, Kumingga and Gidey, who originally thought their value would rise this year. However, unexpectedly, July is almost over, and the news of their contract renewal is still unremarkable.

For these two very popular newcomers in 2021, they were unable to wait until their annual salary surge like other rookies in the same echelon who completed their contract renewal as early as last year. On the contrary, at the moment when the rookie contract is completed, they still can't wait for the next high-paying contract.

From some perspectives, these two people are indeed born at the wrong time. In terms of player abilities, Kumingga and Gidy are definitely worth the salary price they insist on, but due to the market conditions this year, the two are still in a disadvantageous situation.

The rules for restricted free agents have to be mentioned here.

Restricted free agent rules generally appear on players who end their rookie contracts. One is that after the first round rookie contract, the other is that after the first round rookie contract, the other is that they are non-first round rookies (second round rookies or undrafts). If their contract is within three years, they also have the right to become a restricted free agent.

The difference is that after a first-round rookie receives a four-year contract, the parent team must submit a qualified offer to make it a restricted free agent; rather than a first-round rookie, the parent team must submit a "125% of the salary of the previous year" or "the first-year salary is 200,000 more than the first-round rookie" as the final offer.

The design of this restricted free agent is mainly to hope that the parent team can control the new players for the longest time after selecting new players; therefore, if the contract cannot be renewed in advance and reaches a restricted free agent, you can also retain the person by comparison after other teams offer prices, or if the negotiations are really not reached, the players can also not accept the offer from the outside world, receive a one-year contract, and become a non-restricted free agent again the next year, and there is no need to be any restrictions at that time.

As for non-first round rookies, the contract is usually not too large. If it can be played within these three years, the team will intentionally retain people. However, there are usually few cases where non-first-round pick explosions happen to occur in the contract year. Most of them may have negotiated a contract renewal the year before so as not to reach the stage of restricted free agents.

Normally, unless it is a case where the player is not worth it after the third year and the fourth year is just over, most high-quality rookies can basically let the parent team have a rough understanding of his potential one year before the expiration of their rookie contracts, and thus discuss early renewal.

Refer to the 2021 echelon rookies as an example, the four most representative rookies, No. 1 pick Cunningham, Best Rookie Scotty Barnes, Best Defensive candidate Mobley, and Magic main player Wagner. These people have determined the team's status and have completed the highest five-year 25% maximum salary as early as last year; and for stars like Brunson and Jaylen Johnson, although they have not reached the absolute ace level, they are already at least the top three main players of the team, and finally got a five-year, 150 million-dollar contract renewal at the first level.

If you mention the Rockets in a special way, they are quite special. The Rockets hold two first-round rookies in 2021 and are also the core protagonists of the team, but not only can the team's center Shen Jing lower the price to a five-year, 185 million contract that is not the highest 25% salary, but also negotiate a three-year, 105 million contract with Jaylen Green, which is quite favorable to the team, is definitely the best case for early renewal in the 21-tier team.

So, the same problem came to Kumingga and Giddy. In terms of player topics, these two people have never stopped since the draft. Kuminggaben is regarded as a top four favorite. Finally, after the Raptors chose Barnes beyond expectations, he caused him to fall to the seventh overall Warriors, which also allowed the Warriors, who were in the playoff stage to get a newcomer with the top talent in the same echelon.

As for Gidey, the original estimated draft value was at the 10th pick to the brink of the lottery, and even the Grizzlies traded, it was obviously to choose Gidey to improve the ranking. In the end, the Thunder directly intercepted the sixth, making Gidey the newbie with the biggest soaring price of the draft that year.

One is the best forward in the same echelon, and the other is a rare defender with both wing height and point guard skills. It should have been at the core level, but both of them faced problems in the parent team. Kuminggakan is talented, but he has always been limited by the Warriors' plan and has not received enough opportunities to play. Although there were injuries in the contract year last season, there was also the fact that the Warriors did not give him a fixed starting position.

As for Giddy, although she had already shown her talent early on, she was eventually abandoned by the Thunder because of her lack of wing defense and outside ability, and then threw the issue of renewal to the Bulls.

For Kumingga, his contract renewal has always troubled the Warriors. The Warriors naturally know Kumingga's talent and believe that he is the core choice for future reconstruction. However, they cannot ignore Curry's final hope of winning the championship, nor can they really let Kumingga go. The competitors in the same position have also restricted him frequently. Whether it is Wiggins or Butler, these problems have made Kumingga grow up, but it is still difficult to hide the abandoned ending.

, and Giddy's contract renewal was based on the actual situation. When the Thunder intercepted the bell at a high pick, he naturally valued his ability. During the rise of the team, the Thunder also chose to use the defender Dort as the wing defender, while Alexander could be responsible for the offense with all his strength..

But after the Thunder began to advance to the championship, Giddy's perimeter and defensive weaknesses began to become the Thunder's baggage, and was eventually replaced by Caruso, a panacea. Although the ceiling has dropped, Caruso is clearly more in line with the championship puzzle required by competing teams. Fortunately, Giddy did reborn after moving to the Bulls, and her personal ball rights were not far from that of the Thunder period, especially after the Bulls sent Raven away, it was significantly improved.

But even so, Gidey is still waiting to be sold. If Kumingga did not score and it was difficult to promote contract renewal, it would be even more embarrassing that Gidi could not get the contract after performing. This is also the cold winter situation caused by the market this year.

The original rule for restricted free agents was established to hope that the parent team would have the right to follow up the offer when facing their rookie being poached, such as Hayward, Pelicans, Eric Gordon, and Otto Porter.

But there are also blind spots in this. Those young people that the team really value, such as Porter Jr., who are at risk of injury, received the highest salary early, or the Sixers did not renew Maxi in advance, and the Lakers did not choose to trade him to the Pelicans after renewing the contract with Ingram. In the end, the two only signed a five-year maximum salary after the results were made the next year, otherwise they should not have reached the stage of restricted free agents.

But the biggest key to these cases is that the parent team is unwilling to receive the highest gift for five years, but obviously after other teams give the highest bids they can use, the parent team is willing to follow up, which shows that in the mind of the parent team, these people do not reach the absolute maximum salary level, or do not expect them to grow into maximum salary for the time being, but the quotation at the next level is acceptable.

And the biggest key among them is to have a team quote. For example, after Ayton, who encountered the same problem in 2022, received a four-year maximum salary quote from the Pacers (25% starting salary, but not the parent team's offer so the increase is low), the Sun immediately followed up the quote to keep people; and for Kumingga and Gidi, in addition to Kumingga's own lack of value, Gidi could not get a quote when he was playing with value. The problem is very obvious, mainly because there is not enough space in the market.

In fact, objectively speaking, the Warriors and the Bulls themselves have a very obvious demand for Kumingga and Giddy, but the situations of each team are different. No matter what the Warriors say, by 2027, the three-person contracts of Kumingba naturally need a young core. At present, Kumingga is indeed a choice that the Warriors will find difficult to get a replacement in the short term.

The problem is that under Cole's dispatch in the past two seasons, Kumingga has gradually been disappointed with the Warriors, and he may not necessarily want to wait until 2027 for the Warriors to get more time. The problem in particular is that if the Warriors don't pay a high salary, they are likely to be willing to get a qualification offer and become a free agent the next year and leave the team.

Judging from this case, the last example of getting the team's recognition in a rookie contract but not getting a reasonable offer and finally getting a qualification offer was Greg Monroe. He later only got a fairly ordinary contract, but far from what he wanted.

From the Warriors' standpoint, if Kumingga is willing to obtain a qualification quotation contract, it naturally means that he does not want to stay with the Warriors, and it is very likely that the Warriors will not reuse him in the new season. Even if they become a restricted free agent, Kumingga may not get a very good offer and will eventually leave the Warriors. If you really want to make a fortune, you may have to decide based on the next contract, and it is likely that it will happen after 2027.

In short, Kumingga, who was unsuccessful in the Warriors, was basically destined to waste the first half of his career.

As for Giddy, although the Bulls now claim that they are only willing to offer a contract with an average annual salary of about 20 million, he may still have a chance to get a high salary in the end. The Bulls are not as expensive as the Warriors in 2026-27. The Bulls will even expire Kobe White's contract next season, with a total team salary of less than 70 million. The highest salary in the team is Paway, who is currently not the core of the team.

At that time, the Bulls have absolutely no room to swallow multiple maximum contracts. They are now just because the market is not good and want to lower Gidey's price as much as possible. In fact, even if the Bulls can still find ace again in the future, the 22-year-old Gidey still has the opportunity to become the second leader of the team.

After pulling and entanglement, Kumingga and Gidi unexpectedly became restricted free agents, but due to the poor market conditions this year and the mistakes of each team made the two unable to get the desired contract offer in the renewal year.

It can only be said that these two people are really against their wishes. Giddy may still have some chance. Not only will Kumingga find any good contract in the short term, but his fate with the Warriors has basically come to an end. He can only wait for a while to see if he can grow up and get the second chance to pursue a high salary.