ESPN simulates the top three of this year s draft! Flag + Rutgers University s double star

The Dallas Mavericks won the 2025 NBA Draft draw today, claiming the first pick ahead of a two-day draft in Brooklyn, New York, from June 26-267. The shocking twist of fate was that the Mavericks converted their 1.8% chance of winning, giving them a chance to choose Duke’s Cooper Flagge, a recognized top player in the 2025 draft. The San Antonio Spurs, the Philadelphia Sixers and the Charlotte Hornets were also winners Monday night, with their draft picks ranked 2, 3 and 4 respectively. The

Spurs had only 6.3% chance of going from 8th to 2nd place, while the 76ers had a 10.6% chance of going from 5th to 3rd place, creating additional confusion after a surprise victory in Dallas. The Hornets had a 12% chance of 4th, down one, but the Hornets were doing well after Utah, Washington State and New Orleans all slid out of the top four.

ESPN expert Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo shared their post-first draw mock draft, reflecting a comprehensive assessment of the 2025 class and taking into account intelligence from scouts and front desk staff.

1. Dallas Mavericks

Cooper Flagg, SF/PF, Duke University Freshman |Percent Probability Selection: 100%

Scout Report: Flagg, as a recognized No. 1 pick, is well deserved in an excellent freshman season, which is ranked first in a once-and-for-all era. Statistically speaking, he is comparable to the best college wings of this era, thanks to his stability and ability to lead young Duke teams.

NBA Intelligence and Match: For the Mavericks, winning the lottery with only 1.8% odds is an earthquake-like, impossible victory, and if Flag joins, they will make a decision easily. With Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving approaching their 30s, Dallas has been committed to making the most of the current window, and Flagg’s preparation and versatility should strengthen their roster immediately.

As Irving recovers from an ACL injury, Flag could enter the league, take on important shots and handle the ball, which gives him a great opportunity to expand his position as the core of the organization and potentially become an offensive star. This result greatly changed the fate of the Mavericks, who were in trouble after trading superstar Luca Doncic, seemingly shortening the window for the championship.

2. San Antonio Spurs Dylan Harper, PG/SG, Rutgers University

Freshman |Choose probability %: 59.3

Scout Report: Harper tried his best to maintain the first pick for some time this season with his skill level, shooting creation and scoring skills. He can also get where he wants on the floor while showing strong passing ability.

NBA Intelligence and Health: The Spurs are already in the same enviable position as any lottery team, with two draft picks in the top 14 to strengthen their roster, which already has two consecutive NBA Rookie of the Year winners Victor Vinbanyama and Stephen Castle, now jumping from No. 8 to No. 2 in the draft draw with great luck.

3. Philadelphia 76ers Bailey, SG/SF, Rutgers University

Freshman |Choose probability %: 54.0

Scout Report: Compared with the typical top five picks, Bailey is more polarized for scouts, showing a flash of scoring at Rutgers while still in the early stages of development in other key areas. The Lotto team is eager to learn about him in the pre-draft process, including interviews, to see how far he is from making a positive contribution on the NBA court.

NBA Intelligence and Health: The Sixers not only breathe easily, but they can celebrate after their draft pick jumps to No. 3 instead of falling out of the top six and being sent to Oklahoma City. The high value draft pick gives the Sixers a real silver lining after the 25-26 season as they try to balance winning around Joel Embiid and building for the future.

Bailey's shooting skills and significant scoring advantage will provide Philadelphia with another strong long-term cornerstone, besides their rising backcourts, Tyreth Maxi and Jared McCain.