Is it possible that the 68-win champion Thunder has passed its peak?

The NBA is in an unprecedented period of fragmentation. In the past seven seasons, seven different championship teams have been produced. Since Durant started playing for the Golden State Warriors, no defending champion team has reached the conference finals, let alone lifted the O'Brien trophy.

But one of the biggest questions in the NBA is whether this pattern will continue, or whether this is just an episode between dynasty changes. The Oklahoma City Thunder, which just won the first championship in team history, are the clear favorites to defend the title. 80% of the league's general managers choose them to win the championship again in the 2025-26 season.

With the deep, star-studded roster that general manager Presti has built, the Thunder may be on the verge of a dynasty era. But in the NBA, nothing is guaranteed. Last season, 83% of the league's general managers picked the Boston Celtics to defend their title, but they were eliminated in the second round when Tatum suffered a torn Achilles tendon.

So, Oklahoma City may have reached its peak on the road to a championship. But it's also possible that the Thunder will reach their peak this season. Or, as the young lineup continues to grow, the Thunder's peak is still a few years away.

In other words: Will the best version of this Thunder team be past tense, present tense, or future tense? There are compelling arguments for all three cases.

Why the Thunder's peak may have been last season

Under the current league structure, most NBA championship teams reach their peak when they win their first championship. Look at the first two championship teams, both of which, like the Thunder, seemed like they should have won more championships quickly.

"We won't be satisfied with one championship. We want more," former Nuggets coach Malone said the night his team won the 2023 championship. A few months later, Booth added: "If everything works optimally, we should win three or four championships." But two years later, the Nuggets failed to return to the conference finals, and Malone and Booth were no longer in Denver.

Meanwhile, the 2024 champion Celtics are in trouble as Tatum is recovering from a torn Achilles tendon and they have lost three of their top six players on the championship roster, namely Holiday, Horford and Porzingis, due to financial concerns.

Once a team wins a championship, the most likely development path is often to decline rather than continue to climb. The same may be true for Oklahoma City; the team posted the best net rating in NBA history (+12.9 points), which will be difficult to top again. The Thunder also achieved a record of 68 wins and 14 losses, tied for the fifth-best record in 82 regular season games in history.

History shows that such a dominant team is almost destined to regress. Of the previous 26 teams that won 64 or more games in a season, 25 won fewer games the following season.

The Thunder also benefited from some shooting luck last season, which may return to normal in the future. Last season, Thunder opponents shot just 37 percent on wide-open three-pointers, the worst rate of any defensive team.

According to data from GeniusIQ, taking into account factors such as the shooter's identity and position, the Thunder's opponents' shooting percentage was 1.3 percentage points lower than expected on all three-point attempts. This is the league's second-largest "bad luck" margin. If their opponents hit the expected number of 3-pointers, they would score about 120 more points all season, which would be enough to drop the Thunder's points differential from first all-time to fifth all-time.

Luck aside, if the Thunder focus on the playoffs and ultimate goal rather than the regular season, their numbers may also get worse. Yes, they're young, but they've also just had the shortest offseason of almost any player's career, and they expect to play until late June every year.

The Thunder had to deal with some injury problems in the 2024-25 season, but their most important player, Alexander, played almost every game and was eventually elected MVP. After playing 99 games last season (including the regular season and playoffs), will Coach Daignault let Alexander rest more?

Even if he still plays almost every game, Alexander may be down from his highs in the 2024-25 season. He posted the 35th season in NBA history in which he averaged at least 32 points per game, and of the 34 previous instances, 28 players failed to reach that mark again the following season. (The exceptions are Doncic, Embiid, Jordan, Baylor, and Chamberlain twice.)

Why the Thunder may be at its peak this season

The typical explanations for regression don't seem to apply to the Thunder. First, they are on the right side of the age curve. Caruso and Williams (both entering their age-31 season) are the only players on the roster older than 27.

The Thunder were not unusually healthy last season. While Alexander played 76 games, other Thunder starters missed more frequently: Dort missed 11 games, Jaylen Williams missed 13 games, Hartenstein missed 25 games and Holmgren missed 50 games. In particular, getting Hartenstein and Holmgren to play together more in 2025-26 would be a plus, as the two centers didn't play a minute together before February and need to develop chemistry quickly after that.

The Thunder have not lost any irreplaceable championship members. Instead, they retained players who played 99.2% of the 2024-25 postseason minutes. Thanks to the experience they gained in a high-pressure environment last spring, they should be better and better prepared in future postseasons.

Just look at Daignault as an example of progress from experience. He was slow to adjust in his first playoff trip in 2023-24, but proved more tactically sharp en route to a championship a year later. Daignault's defensive strategy against Jokic in the heat of the second round, especially using the smaller, more annoying Caruso against Jokic in Game 7, was as effective as possible against the three-time MVP.

Now may be their best chance to improve before the roster becomes too expensive. This season, OKC's big three of Alexander, Holmgren and Williams will take up a combined 38% of the salary cap. By the 2026-27 season, that number will jump to at least 75% as max extensions for Holmgren and Williams take effect. In the 2027-28, 2028-29 and 2029-30 seasons, thanks to Alexander's record-breaking supermax salary, this proportion will reach at least 85%.

While some individual Thunder players may not reach their prime until later this decade as they enter their prime years, the Thunder as a team may be in their prime now, before the team is forced to cut contracts to keep the salary table viable due to the NBA's new era of financial rules. After this season, Dort and Hartenstein have team options worth a combined $46.7 million. Would Oklahoma City consider giving up one or two championship-caliber starters and trust Wallace and Williams to fill the void with more playing time?

The Thunder rely on their depth and young star power to win, and the 2025-26 season may bring the best balance between these two advantages.

Why the Thunder's Peak May Be in the Future

With Oklahoma City's youth in mind, the uniqueness of last season's championship cannot be overstated. According to Basketball Reference, the average age of the Thunder's championship-winning playoff rotation was 24.7 years old.

But teams that win championships tend to be older. The average age of championship teams since 1984, when the playoffs expanded to 16 teams, is 28.7 years old, suggesting the Thunder's core is four years ahead of schedule.

Oklahoma City is an extreme outlier in this regard. Before last season, the youngest championship team since 1984 was the Warriors in the 2014-15 season, with an average age of 26.4, still nearly two years older than the championship-winning Thunder.

This gap gives the Thunder so much room and time to grow, even though they are already at the top of the league. It would be foolish to put limits on their potential too early, especially with budding stars Williams and Holmgren.

The following are every player who has been selected to the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams at the age of 23 or earlier this century: Jaylen Williams, Mobley, Ben Simmons, Embiid, Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Paul George, Howard, Chris Paul, Wade, Kobe, Garnett and Duncan.

With the exception of Simmons and the still-young Williams and Mobley, every player on this list has been selected to the All-NBA First Team at least once and finished in the top three or better in MVP voting. Williams should develop into a superstar.

Holmgren, meanwhile, has developed into one of the league's top defenders in his first two seasons, allowing opponents to shoot just 50.6 percent when he's the closest defender at the rim, according to NBA Advanced Stats. That was the third-best performance among 389 players who defended at least 100 shots during the same period, slightly better than Vembanyama and Gobert (both 52%).

If Holmgren continues to improve his offensive skillset, he will also become a regular on the annual All-NBA team. The Thunder may have three top-10 players in their prime growing and winning together.

And, while the Thunder may soon lose non-star players like Dort or Hartenstein for financial reasons, they also have some tricks up their sleeves to help manage salary constraints and keep more of their rotation intact. For example, Wiggins, Joe and Jaylin Williams all signed progressively less contract extensions, which limits the amount of salary cap space those contracts take up when their star teammates become expensive. Numerous team options at the end of his contract will keep Presti flexible.

Presti should also be able to find replacements for departing role players through the draft, such as 2025 second-round pick Balkhedzer, who performed well in summer league and preseason. Typically, dynasty teams have trouble maintaining a pipeline of young players because they draft the 30th pick every year or trade draft picks for immediate upgrades. But that shouldn't be a problem for the Thunder, who have additional first-round picks in 2026, 2027 and 2029; favorable draft pick swaps in 2026, 2027 and 2028; and so many second-round picks that they'll likely have to trade away a bunch. The Thunder's roster doesn't have enough room for even a fraction of the draft picks they have.

If they do win multiple championships, history suggests a future Thunder championship team will be better than the 2024-25 version. According to a formula developed by ESPN analyst Pelton (which is based on the team's point differential in the regular season and playoffs), the statistical peak of most NBA dynasties occurs in the middle period:

The Warriors of the 2010s won their first championship in 2015 and peaked in 2017;

The Lakers of the 2000s won their first championship in 2000 and peaked in 2001;

1990 The Bulls of the 1980s won their first championship in 1991 and reached their peak in 1996;

The Lakers of the 1980s won their first championship in 1980 and reached their peak in 1987;

The Celtics of the 1980s won their first championship in 1981 and reached their peak in 1986;

The Thunder have the right core to raise the ceiling, as well as the draft assets and player development system to support sustainable winning. Their peak may still be a few years away. Considering last season's version went 68-14, set a record scoring margin and won a championship, this is a scary situation going forward for the rest of the league.