The NBA draft draw will be held tomorrow: Who can win the No. 1 pick in the Jazz Wizards? What are the secrets hidden when the Rockets hold the Suns first round draw?

1. Three-legged tripods in the lottery zone: Who can become the "Son of Chosen" in the Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets?

(I) 14% chance of tied for first place: the competition for the weakest three teams

In the NBA regular season this season, the Jazz, Wizards and Hornets' records were surprising, with their bleak results of 17 wins, 63 losses, 17 wins, 63 losses and 19 wins, 61 losses respectively, firmly occupying the bottom of the league. However, this poor record has given them a 14% chance of winning the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft draw, tied for first place.

According to the 2025 draft rules, these three teams with the worst record all enjoy 140 table tennis combinations, accounting for 14%, which means they all have a considerable chance to stand out in the lottery and win the No. 1 pick. Moreover, these three teams also enjoy the top five picks, while the Wizards and Hornets have the top six and top seven picks.

For these three teams, the significance of the No. 1 pick is self-evident. After the Jazz traded Mitchell and Gobert, they officially entered the reconstruction period. They urgently needed a core striker to lead the team to a new future. After the Wizards traded Bills, they were also working hard to reshape the backcourt. The No. 1 pick is undoubtedly the key puzzle for their reconstruction; the Hornets have been troubled by the shortcomings of the forward line for a long time, and an all-round striker may bring new vitality to the team.

And this year's No. 1 pick, Victor Flag, is undoubtedly the player they are most eager to get. The 18-year-old Duke striker, with a terrifying talent and comprehensive technology, is considered a superstar who can change the fate of the team. His all-round attributes, whether offense or defense, can bring huge improvements to the team, and perhaps it is the key to breaking the situation by these three teams.

1. Jazz: The probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 14%, the probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 52.1%

2. Wizards: The probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 14%, the probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 52.1%

3. Hornets: The probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 14%, the probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 52.1%

4. Pelicans: The probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 12.5%, the probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 48.1 %

5.76 people: the probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 10.5%, the probability of winning the top four is 42.1%

6. Nets: the probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 9.0%, the probability of winning the top four is 37.2%

7. Raptors: the probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 7.5%, the probability of winning the top four is 31.9%

8. Spurs: the probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 6.0%, the probability of winning the top four is 3 Rate 26.3%

9. Rockets (from the Suns): The probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 3.8%, the probability of winning the top four pick is 17.3%

10. Trail Blazers: The probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 3.7%, the probability of winning the top four pick is 16.9%,

11. Mavericks: The probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 1.8%, and the probability of winning the top four pick is 8.5%

12. Bulls: The probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 8.9%

12. Bulls: The probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 16.9%, and the probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 1.8%, and the probability of winning the top four pick is 8.5%

12. Bulls: The probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 16.9%, and the probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 11. The probability of the first four picks is 1.7%, the probability of the top four picks is 8.0%

13. Hawks (from the Kings): the probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 0.8%, the probability of winning the top four picks is 3.8%

14. Spurs (from the Hawks): the probability of winning the No. 1 pick is 0.7%, the probability of the top four picks is 3.4%

Non-lotto picks:

15. Thunder (from the Heat) 16. Magic 17. Timberwolves (from the Pistons) 18. Wizards (from the Grizzlies) 19. Nets (from the Bucks) 20. Heats (from the Warriors) 21. Jazz (from the Timberwolves) 22. Hawks (from the Lakers) 23. Pacers 24. Thunder (from the Clippers) 25. Magic (from the Nuggets) 26. Nets (from the Knicks) 27. Nets (from the Rockets) 28. Celtics 29. Suns (from the Cavaliers) 30. Clippers (from the Thunder)

Note: The Thunder have the right to swap the first round with the Clippers

(2) The middle and lower-stream teams are eyeing: the Pelicans and 76ers are hidden and disrupting the situation

In addition to the three teams of the Jazz, Wizards and Hornets, some teams in the middle and lower-stream are also eyeing high picks. The Pelicans ranked fourth with a 12.5% ​​chance of winning the lead, while the 76ers followed closely with a 10.5% chance. Although their probability is slightly lower, anything is possible on the stage of draft lottery, full of uncertainty.

The Pelicans have super insiders like Zion, but the team's inside depth still needs to be strengthened. If they can draw the mid-to-high pick and choose an excellent inside player to partner with Zion, then the Pelicans' inside will become one of the most terrifying existences in the league. Although Embiid of the 76ers is strong, the team has always lacked young and potential helpers. A high-court rookie may be able to share the pressure for Embiid and help the 76ers go further in future games.

It is worth noting that the Suns' first round pick is ranked ninth with a 3.8% chance since the trade is already owned by the Rockets. The Trail Blazers ranked tenth with a probability of 3.7%. Although the two teams have a low chance of signing, their signing may become an important bargaining chip in the trading market. After all, for some teams with championship competency, a potential rookie may be the last piece in their championship puzzle.

2. Rockets "blind box operation": How to rewrite and reconstruct the script for the first round of the Suns?

(I) Hold the Suns' core signings for the next three years: From swap rights to unprotected signings, the Rockets successfully controlled the Suns' core signings for the next three years through a series of clever operations on the road to reconstruction, which undoubtedly added strong confidence to their reconstruction plan. Last year, the Rockets and the Nets reached a far-reaching deal, and this deal made the Rockets very rewarding. Not only did they get multiple first-round picks, they also got the Suns Future draft picks. Now, the Rockets hold the Suns' first round swap rights in 2025. Although there is only a 3.8% chance of winning the No. 1 pick, this swap rights have huge potential value.

In addition, the Rockets also have the unprotected first-round pick for the Suns in 2027, as well as the "Suns/Mavericks' more advanced signing" and "More late signing exchange rights". The existence of these signings gives the Rockets more voice in future draft and trading markets. Taking the Suns' performance this season as an example, they only achieved a record of 36 wins and 46 losses, which is undoubtedly a disappointment for a team with the three big three Durant, Booker and Bills. If the Suns still cannot achieve ideal results in the next few seasons and even enter the reconstruction stage, these unprotected signings in the Rockets will become their core bargaining chips for chasing the stars. Previously, US media had simulated the Rockets using their 2025 and 2027 signings to bid Durant, which is enough to demonstrate the Rockets' ambition to use these signs to trade.

(2) Advancing can attack and retreat and defend: How can draft picks serve team planning?

From the Rockets' perspective, the Suns draft picks it holds have significant flexibility and diversity in the team's future planning, providing rich choices for the team's strategic layout. In terms of short-term benefit analysis, although the Suns' first round pick in 2025 has only a 3.8% chance of winning the No. 1 pick, even if the final pick is in the middle of the lottery zone, it is still a favorable opportunity for the Rockets. In this pick range, the Rockets can focus on selecting wing players or inside players who are suitable for the team's tactical system. For example, selecting forwards with excellent shooting ability will not only effectively expand the team's offensive space, but also contribute to the defensive end, thereby enhancing the Rockets' existing lineup depth and helping the team achieve better results in the new season.

From long-term strategic planning considerations, the draft picks in 2027 and 2029 contain more critical strategic value. As the Suns' core three contracts gradually enter the later stage, the team's salary structure may face severe pressure, and competitive performance may also be affected. In this case, the Rockets will play a decisive role in these draft picks. On the one hand, it can be used as a "star trading chip" to exchange star players with immediate combat capabilities to quickly improve the team's competitiveness in the league; on the other hand, when the Suns enter the reconstruction cycle, the Rockets are expected to use these signs to strive to introduce core players such as Booker, reshape the team's core lineup structure, and lay a solid foundation for future development.

In addition, the Rockets have shown high flexibility and innovation in draft pick application strategies, and are not limited to single-pick operations. The team can integrate and package multiple first-round picks to use for upward trading draft picks. For example, if the Rockets show a strong interest in a high-ranking rookie player, but their existing draws are difficult to meet the needs, they can negotiate with other teams by packing multiple first-round picks to obtain higher picks, effectively avoiding the adverse effects caused by the limited chance of their draft picks. This diversified and flexible draft pick application strategy has greatly expanded the Rockets' operating space and development possibilities in the future team reconstruction process.

III. Detailed explanation of the 2025 draft rules: From "anti-playing bad" to the lottery mechanism reform

(I) Table Tennis lottery mechanism: Fairness design in the 14% probability era

The NBA draft lottery rules have undergone many changes, aiming to ensure fair competition and reduce the occurrence of "showing bad" phenomenon. Since 2019, the league has adopted a new table tennis draw mechanism, which is at the heart of the use of 14 table tennis balls, each marked with numbers 1 to 14. By randomly selecting 4 table tennis balls to form a four-digit combination, there are theoretically 1,001 such combinations. However, in order to ensure the equilibrium distribution of probability, the alliance excluded the special combinations of 11, 12, 13, and 14, and finally obtained 1,000 effective combinations.

Under this mechanism, the team with the worst record has the largest number of combinations, thus having a higher probability of winning the No. 1 pick. Specifically, the Jazz, Wizards and Hornets, who have the last three record this season, each won 140 combinations, which means that they have a 14% chance of winning the No. 1 pick. The fourth-ranked Pelicans won 125 combinations, with the probability of winning the No. 1 pick being 12.5%, and so on, the probability gradually decreases as the record improves.

In the first round draft, the first draw is the No. 1 pick. When a team's combination is drawn, the team will get the No. 1 pick, and the remaining combinations will be invalidated. Then, in the same way, the second prize draw, the third prize draw and the fourth pick are drawn in turn. For those teams that have not drawn the top four picks, their picks will be arranged in reverse order of regular season record, determining the 5th to 14th picks. The change in this rule completely changed the previous situation of "striking bad teams dominate". Under the old rules, the team with the worst record has a 25% chance of winning the No. 1 pick, which undoubtedly encourages some teams to deliberately lose in order to get a high pick. Under the new rules, the probability of the top three teams in the last three teams is limited to 14%, which greatly reduces the profits of bad play. At the same time, expanding the lottery range of the top four picks also gives more teams the opportunity to get high picks, increasing the suspense and uncertainty of draft lottery. This fair design not only makes the game more exciting, but also makes each team pay more attention to the victory or defeat of the regular season, bringing more high-quality games to fans.

(II) Impact of special clauses: How does the interchange right and protection mechanism work?

In this draft, in addition to the basic draw rules, there are some special terms that have had an important impact on the draws of each team. Among them, the most eye-catching one is the "swap right" of the Rockets' first round pick in 2025. According to the trading agreement between the two parties, the Rockets have the right to decide whether to exchange the first round of the lottery with the Suns after the lottery results are released. When the Jazz, Wizards and Hornets compete for luck for the No. 1 pick, and when the Rockets' "Sun chips" are about to be unveiled, the NBA's gear of fate is quietly turning. This night, some will usher in the dawn of reconstruction, some will get the puzzle of championship competition, and the basketball story that belongs to 2025 is starting to be written from this small table tennis.