Will Reeves be the next Poole? Life and Death Test Questions for System Dividends and Maximum Ambitions

When Austin Reeves refused the Lakers' four-year, $89.2 million renewal and targeted the four-year, $140-160 million super contract, a familiar question in the NBA circle began to spread: Will he be the next Jordan Poole? After all, two years ago, Poole also produced impressive data with the support of the Warriors system. He left with a 4-year, 140 million contract, but quickly exposed his shortcomings in the Wizards and became a typical example of a premium contract. The trajectories of these two people seem to overlap, but in fact they hide the key distinction that determines their destiny. The similarity between Reeves and Poole is the double-edged sword of system dividends. When Poole was at the Warriors, Curry and Thompson were behind him to attract defensive attention. Green sorted out his offense. He only needed to focus on running without the ball and receiving and shooting, and even had the opportunity to make an easy breakthrough under the restraint of superstars. This free-ride offensive environment makes his average 18.5 points per game in the 2021-22 season seem more dazzling than his actual ability. Reeves' current situation is almost a replica: James' breakthrough pass and Doncic's outside restraint have created a large number of open three-pointers and opportunities to cut into the basket. Last season's 46% shooting percentage and 37.7% three-point shooting percentage depended to a large extent on the Lakers' system that opens up space. The fans' doubts that "it may not be possible to leave the Lakers" are exactly the same as the outside world's concerns about Poole back then.

But the key differences are precisely hidden in the depth of system dependence. Poole is essentially a pure scorer. The defense end is always a loophole targeted by his opponents. After leaving the Warriors, when he needed to undertake more ball-holding tasks and face more intensive defense, his efficiency immediately plummeted - in the Wizards' first season, his shooting percentage dropped to 41.3%, and his three-point shooting percentage was only 32.6%. The singleness on the offensive end was infinitely amplified. Reeves is different. Not only can he score points, he also handed over 5.8 assists and 1.1 steals last season. He is willing to fight on the defensive end and can switch to multiple positions. This is an important puzzle in the Lakers' offensive and defensive system. His value is not only "eating cake", but also includes the contribution of connecting offensive and defensive ends. This comprehensiveness gives him a layer of risk resistance than Poole. Even if he leaves the Lakers system, he may not collapse instantly. The more core difference lies in the quality of the key battle and the maturity behind the contract. Reeves' playoff data fell sharply last season: averaged 16.2 points per game, shooting percentage of 41.1%, and three-point shooting percentage of 31.9%. This is indeed his weakness, but compared to Poole, this decline is more like inexperienced rather than a flaw in ability. In the 2023 Warriors playoffs, Poole made low-level mistakes, missed defenses in key battles, and even had conflicts with his teammates due to mentality issues; and Reeves' playoff struggles are more of an adaptation problem when facing opponents' targeted defense. In addition, Reeves is 27 years old, 3 years older than Poole when he signed a large contract, and he is more aware of his positioning. His statement, "I don't want to win the All-Star by swiping data" also reveals a clearer professional awareness than Poole. This maturity may allow him to avoid falling into the expansion trap after getting a large contract.

For the Lakers, judging whether Reeves will become the "next Poole" is essentially evaluating the ratio of system value to personal ability. If Reeves' 80% value comes from the blessing of James and Doncic, then giving the maximum salary is a repeat of the Warriors' mistakes; but if his comprehensiveness and defensive attitude can support 40% of independent value, then this contract has the value of bet. After all, in the history of NBA, it is not uncommon for cases of growing from a system player to an All-Star - for example, Klay Thompson was originally a shooter around Curry, and eventually gained a foothold with his own defense and key ball skills.

Reeves is not a replica of Poole. He has the opportunity to avoid the former's detours, but the premise is that he can prove this season that without the restraint of James and Doncic, he can still score in tough battles; without the Lakers' system, his defense and passing can still create value for the team. Otherwise, when the maximum salary contract is obtained, those playoff struggles and hidden dangers of system dependence will eventually push him to an ending similar to Poole. The Lakers' choice not only determines the direction of Reeves' career, but will also become an important reference for the NBA's system player pricing in the next few years.