20250817-18 Simulation prediction of mainstream European leagues based on goal expectation model and institutional data

The expected goal model is used to simulate the number of goals and the difference between the two teams, and compare them with the actual concession index of the institutions to analyze the strength gap between the two teams. Basic judgment principle: If an institution looks higher than a team, and gives more concessions, the team is more beneficial, but if the high opening is more than 0.5, especially above 0.75, it is necessary to analyze in detail, because the high opening of the institution may be a strength plate or a temptation plate. Generally speaking, the positive strength plate is mainly used, and abnormal data marked yellow or orange are likely to be unpopular or psychologically unpopular.

Difficulties in judgment: At present, it is difficult to judge games with close goals, small differences and close strength. It is necessary to analyze in detail based on institutional data, and it is also difficult to speculate on the score of 0-0.

Main difficult matches: (The data of the Dutch League and the Nordic Super League are difficult to grasp)

United Eredivisie 20:30 Rotterdam Sparta Utrecht, expected goals 1.2 and 1.7, difference -0.5, theoretical side get 0.5, actual institutions draw draws to the main low, their strength is close, generally the winner is the winner, and the odds are won, and you can give up.

Warning 20:30 Tromso Bran, expected goals 1.5 and 1.7, difference -0.2, theoretical allowance 0.2, actual agency gives 0.25, high water or draw, strength is close, generally the winner is the winner, and the odds are won, and if you have any doubts, you can give up.

Road Super League 22:55 KFUM Oslo Molde, expected goals 1.8 and 1.2, the difference is 0.6, the theoretical give-up is 0.6, the actual organization draws the away team with a low water, the home team has an advantage in the low opening, generally the winner is a biased winner, and if you have any doubts, you can give up.

Games with a high probability of draw:

Swedish Premier League 19:55 Gothenburg AIK Sorner 1.4 1.2

Premier League 20:55 Nottingham Forest Brentford 1.1 1.3

Ligue 1 20:55 Brest Lille 1.4 1.4

Portugal Super League 22:25 Rio Avi Portuguese Nationals 1.5 1

Northern Super League 22:55 Hankan Blaney 1.3 1.1

Premier League 23:25 Manchester United Arsenal 1.3 1.6

Netherland 1:55 Breda Sitta Defortuna 1.5 1.3