8-16 Ligue 1 first round focus match, Nice vs Toulouse

⚽ Event Background

This game is the focus of the first round of the 2025/2026 Ligue 1. Nice plays Allianz Riviera at home to face Toulouse. The game time is 03:05 on August 17 (). Both teams hope to start the new season with victory, but Nice's morale needs to be adjusted due to the recent out of the Champions League qualifiers; Toulouse's preseason state is sluggish and the pressure on away games is significant.

Team status and injury

Nice

Recent performance: 2 wins and 3 losses in the preseason warm-up match, 0-2 loss to Benfica in two rounds of the Champions League qualifiers exposed defensive loopholes, but showed resilience on the offensive end in defeating Sheffield United 3-2 and 2-1 defeating Feyenoord.

Injury List:

Midfielder Nda Isimia (cruciate ligament strain), Ndombele (groin injury)

defender Monem (knee contusion).

Home advantage: 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses at home at the end of last season, including a 3-0 victory over Lorient.

Toulouse

Recent performance: 1 draw and 4 losses in the preseason, 0-7 defeat to RB Leipzig and 0-6 loss to Stuttgart highlighted the collapse of the defense line, and only 1-1 draw Sevilla made a slight improvement.

Injury List:

Midfielder Schmidt (cruciate ligament strain)

defender Nicholasson (ankle injury).

Away hazard: 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 6 away games, conceded 17 goals, and the stability of the defense is worrying.

The following table shows the recent status and key data comparison of the two teams:

Analytical dimensions

Nice

Toulouse

Preseason performance

2 wins and 3 losses (winning Sheffield United, Feyenoord)

1 draws and 4 losses (defeatly defeated Leipzig, Stuttgart)

Key injury

3 people: 2 midfielders + 1 defender (affecting midfield control)

2 people: 1 player each of the midfield + guards (weak the thickness of the defense)

Home/Away performance

Last 6 Home games: 4 wins, 2 losses, 10 goals, conceded 8 goals

Last 6 away games: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses, 4 goals, conceded 17 goals

Tactical style

Ball control dominate (59.8% ball possession rate) focuses on wing offense

Defensive counterattack (40.2% ball possession rate) relies on set pieces

⚔️ Historical confrontations

Nice has won 3 wins 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 6 confrontations, but the last three league matches have ended with draws (August 1-1, 2024, 1-1, 2025). Nice has a clear historical advantage over Toulouse at home (26 wins and 9 losses), but the recent draw trend is worthy of vigilance.

Tactics and lineup prediction

Nice (4-3-3):

Goalkeeper Diouf; defenders Mendy, Ba, Dante, Klaus; midfielders Sanson, Budavi, Barr; forwards Buanani, Mofe, and Janson. Tactical focus: Using the wing speed (Klaus cross) and the impact of center Murphy, he has an advantage in possession (59.8% per game last season).

Toulouse (4-3-3):

Goalkeeper Restace; defenders Canwater, Cresville, Mackenzie, Kamanzi; midfielders Sol, Hidalgo, Rahmadi; forwards Donum, Gerboho, Magri. Tactical focus: high-level pressing + fast counterattack, relying on Donum's breakthrough and Geboho's long-range shot, but the defensive conversion is easy to expose the gap.

Data Preview

Nice: No wins in the first round of Ligue 1 in the past four seasons (3 draws and 1 loss); averaged 1.5 goals at home last season, but the probability of a draw in the first round was 60%.

Toulouse: Unbeaten in the first round of the past four seasons (2 wins and 2 draws), with a psychological advantage; but the away goal conced rate is high (average of 2.8 goals per game in the last 6 games).

Confrontation trend: 4 matches in the last 5 matches ≤2 goals, and both sides have scored goals in 3 times.

Results prediction

Score prediction: 1-1 draw (historical draw inertia + Nice's slow warm-up in the first round).

High value options:

Double choice: Nice unbeaten (win/draw): home team strength and home support.

Total goals 2/3: 4 small goals in the last 5 encounters.

Corner kicks are big 9.5: The two teams have averaged ≥10 corner kicks per game in recent times.

In-depth insight: Nice needs to solve the psychological shadow of being eliminated from the Champions League, and Toulouse's defense line has not yet been tested in actual combat after it is reorganized. Jonis broke the deadlock in the first half (Morphy warmed up 2 goals in the last 3 games), which may break the draw curse; on the contrary, Toulouse's counterattack efficiency will become a key variable.