June 12th European Youth Championship Poland U21 vs. Georgia U21 event in-depth analysis

⚽ 1. Competition background

Nature of the event: In the first round of the European Youth Championship group stage, both teams need to strive for a good start to lay the foundation for qualifying.

Time and location: 03:00 on June 12, neutral position (no home court advantage).

2. Team strength and recent state

Poland U21

Overall performance: 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the qualifiers advanced, with 2.5 goals per game and 1.2 goals conceded, with outstanding offensive efficiency.

Recent status: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 5 games, averaging 2.8 goals per game, but there are hidden dangers in defense (average of 1.8 goals per game in the last 10 games). In the friendly match, he defeated Bulgaria 3-1, but lost 1-2 to Germany to expose the problem of defense.

Key shortcomings: Being easily reversed after leading away games (leading in the last 10 away games and losing rate is 100%).

Georgia U21

Overall performance: 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in the qualifiers to advance in the second place, averaging 2.3 goals and conceded 1.3 goals, with balanced offense and defense.

Recent status: 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 6 games, 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 games, and strong away ability (3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the away game in the qualifiers).

Key shortcomings: weak away ball ability (80% loss rate after being behind in the last 10 away games).

3. Tactical counterattack and core players

Polish U21: Focus on 4-3-3 offensive formation, relying on the front line Trident:

Zirinski (Leverkusen): The core organization of the midfield, with accurate passing.

Milick (Juventus): Strong center, outstanding ability to grab points.

Himansky (Dortmond): The burst point on the side, speed and breakthrough are of great success.

Risk: High-pressing may lead to empty defense, especially against counterattack teams.

Georgia U21: Adopt a 4-2-3-1 anti-counter formation, core strategy:

Kashya (Donetsk miner central defender): leader of the defense line, the confrontation and command ability are key.

Quick conversion: After intercepting the ball, you can rely on a long pass to hit the back and use the winger's speed to raid.

Advantages: The position defense is tight, but the position combat ability is average.

4. Historical confrontation and psychological advantages

Polish U21 absolute crush: wins in the last 4 confrontations (scoring 14 goals and conceding 1 goal), including 3-0, 5-0 and other big scores.

Psychological hint: Georgia has never broken through Polish goal, which may affect offensive confidence.

5. Data Interpretation

European odds tendency: mainstream institutions win 1.93-2.00 in the initial session, draw 3.13-3.60, away win 3.61-3.85. Poland has a slight advantage but obvious odds differences.

Asia Index: Poland generally opens to bring reclaimed water in the hemisphere (0.94-0.95), and some institutions have risen to half-one, reflecting the market's cautious optimism about Poland.

Balls: 2/2.5 balls with large balls and low water (0.77-0.80), which is consistent with the recent offensive efficiency of the two teams.

6. Winning prediction and key highlights

Winning scenario deduction

Poland wins:

Midfield controls the rhythm, and the Trident uses personal abilities to tear the defense line; avoid the defense line being too deep, and prevent the opponent from counterattacking the first point. Probability: 50% (score tendency 2-1, 3-1).

Georgia's upset point:

Efficient counterattack to use the gap in Poland's defense line, and set-piece tactics to score; snatch the start to create a lead, and take advantage of Poland's away psychological fluctuations. Probability: 30% (score tendency 1-1, 1-0).

The possibility of a draw:

Poland has been unable to attack for a long time + Georgia's defensive resilience, and the probability of a draw in the half-time is high; both sides have a goal rate of 80% in the last 10 games, making it easy to have an attacking situation. Probability: 20% (score tendency 1-1, 2-2).

Conclusion

Poland U21 wins and draws double-choice (main wins first), and the direction of the big ball is more stable.