La Liga round 8: Can Elche continue to be unbeaten? Alaves faces a severe test at home

1. Event background: 6-point matchup at the edge of the relegation line

In the early morning of October 8, the 8th round of La Liga ushered in a key battle for relegation - Alaves played at Mendi Sorosa Stadium to face Elche. This "downstream derby" is directly related to the trend of the relegation zone: Alaves is temporarily ranked 15th with 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, 9 points, and is only 3 points higher than the relegation zone. The weak performance of 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 3 home games is urgently needed; Elche is deeply trapped in the relegation zone with 1 win, 2 draws, 4 losses, 5 points, and 4 points away from the safety zone. He has only 1 draw, 4 losses in the last 5 away games and has only scored 1 goal, and the relegation situation is in danger.

The historical confrontations are full of variables. The two sides have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last three matches. Alaves defeated Elche 1-0 away last season, but the two teams shook hands 1-1 in the first round of this season. For Alaves, if he cannot score all three points at home, he may be caught up by the team behind him; Elche needs to break the away goal drought, otherwise it will further widen the gap with the safety zone. This showdown can be called a "survival battle that cannot be afforded."

2. Lineup and status: a difficult situation with weak offense and defense

(I) Alaves: Defensive loopholes and counterattack hope

Offensive end: Inefficient "forwards are weak"

Alaves has weak offense this season, scoring only 6 goals in 7 rounds, tied with Elche to the second-last in La Liga offense. The front line relies on Joseru's fulcrum. The Spanish striker averaged 4.1 successful top-tops per game, but only scored one shot in the last three games, and his cooperation with winger Hota has repeatedly missed good opportunities. The midfield core Pina is the key to counterattack launch, averaging 1.7 key passes per game, but the pass success rate is only 76%, making it difficult to continuously deliver threatening balls. The only highlight is the insertion assist from wingback Dult, who has contributed 1 assist this season, but his lack of defensive recovery ability has become a hidden danger.

Defensive end: The fatal injury of the "couple defense line"

Alaves continued the old problem of "weak defense", conceded 11 goals in 7 rounds, conceded 1.57 goals per game, and the second-last defense efficiency in the league. The combination of centre-back LaGuardia and Le Genène averaged only 6.2 clearances per game, far below the La Liga average. Injuries made the defense worse: main defenders Burgi and Cordoba were absent due to injuries, substitute Michel lacked experience, and they were broken through 5 times in the last 2 games, and the right defense was ineffective. However, coach Avellado's tactical adjustment is worth paying attention to. The 433 change of formation led by him has effectively enhanced midfield interception. Pina and Batalia's double midfield combination averaged 3.2 steals per game, trying to make up for the loopholes in the defense.

(II) Elche: Offensive paralysis and defensive resilience

Offensive end: La Liga's bottom offensive ability

Elche's offense is "disaster level", scoring only 5 goals in 7 rounds, and the average number of shots per game ranked last in the league with 8.3 shots. Although the main striker Boye scored 2 goals, he has not won any of his last 3 games, and his connection with his partner Milia has been cut off many times. The midfield creativity is seriously insufficient. After the main midfielder Guti was absent due to suspension, the double midfielder combination of Mufuru and Maconi averaged only 1.1 key passes per game, making it difficult to support the frontcourt offense. The only hope for scoring comes from set pieces, with 20% of goals this season being scored by set pieces and Fidel’s corner crossing accuracy reaching 38%.

Defensive end: The "remnant line defense line"

Elche's defense is also in danger, conceding 13 goals in 7 rounds and encountering serious injuries: defenders Albaka, Pellegrin, Jose-Anger were collectively injured, the main defender Sidney was suspended, the three-center-back system was forced to use new players, and the average number of clearances per game dropped sharply to 8.1 times. However, goalkeeper Badia performed steadily, with a 72% save rate. He contributed 4 saves in a single game against Atletico Madrid in the last round and almost saved a penalty. Fullback Baragan's wing defense is trustworthy, averaging 1.8 steals per game, but he is hard to beat alone, and the overall defense line is full of loopholes.

III. Tactical game: pragmatic counterattack vs. intensive defense

(I) Alaves: 4-2-3-1 raid

Averado is expected to continue the 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on the "defensive counterattack + wing breakthrough" tactic. Using the interception ability of the double midfielder Pina and Batalia, he cut off Elche's passing line, and then attacked the opponent's wing road through the speed of wingers Hota and Rioya - the two averaged a total of 2.9 passes, which happened to be inexperienced against Elche's full-back. In the offense, Joselu's high-point top (4.1 successes per game) will become the fulcrum, creating long-range shot opportunities for midfielders who are inserted, and Pina has scored one long-range shot this season.

Settings are an important weapon for Alaves. LaGuardia's header success rate reached 58%, creating murderous intent in the game against Elche last season. But we need to be wary of the risk of counterattack caused by excessive pressure. Alaves' 30% of his conceded goals this season came from counterattacks, while Elche's counterattack speed was slow but his efficiency was acceptable.

(II) Elche: 5-4-1's way to survive

The coach of Elche is likely to have a 5-4-1 intensive defensive formation, give up possession of the ball (the expected possession rate is less than 40%), and relies on the five-guard system to shrink the defense line. Midfielders Mufuru and Maconi will focus on the attack on Alaves' midfield core Pina and limit their pass dispatch. In the counterattack, wingback Palacios and Fidel quickly inserted to send a pass for Boye, while Milia inserted into the penalty area to meet the second point. This tactic created a penalty opportunity when facing Atletico Madrid last round.

The set-piece is Elche's "life-saving straw". Fidel's corner kick and free kick will directly look for Berdu and Calvo in the penalty area. The two have a total height of 3.82 meters, with obvious advantages at altitude.. But defense injury has made tactical execution more difficult, and substitute guards’ cooperation mistakes may become a fatal hidden danger. Elche’s 40% of goals conceded this season is due to defensive mistakes.

4. Key matchups and event preview

(I) Three major matches that determine the outcome

Pina vs. Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

Mufuru

{If Pina successfully gets rid of the entanglement, Alaves's raid on the flank will be even more threatening; on the contrary, Mufulu's intercepting ball counterattack may create murderous intent.

Hota vs. Balagan

The ultimate match between the wide-range offense and defense: Hota's inward breakthrough (1.8 successes per game) is Alaves' main offensive method, while Balagan is known for his steady defense (1.8 steals per game). Since Elche left-back Albaka was injured, Baragan may need to take into account both offense and defense, and Hota's speed advantage is expected to tear open the defense line.

Joselu vs. Berdu

Direct dialogue between high-altitude balls: Joselu's high-point top is the key to Alaves' breakthrough. Berdu, as Elche's central defender core, needs to limit his opponents with all his strength per game. If Berdu makes a mistake, Joseru's header will directly threaten the goal.

(2) Score prediction and trend analysis

Comprehensive offensive and defensive strength and injury impact, the game will present a pattern of "home attack + away defensive defense":

First half: Alaves has the advantage of ball control, creating threats through wing breakthroughs and set pieces, but Elche's intensive defense and Badia's save will ensure that the goal is not lost, and both sides are likely to be 0-0.

Second half: As physical fitness declines, a loophole in Elche's defense line appears, Alaves made a cross from Hota's wing, and Joseru headed the ball; but Elche may use a set piece in stoppage time to equalize the score by Berdu heading the ball.

Final score prediction: Alaves 1-1 Elche (probability 45%), and both sides shake hands and make a point each; if Alaves has a stronger ability to seize opportunities, the probability of a 2-1 small victory is 35%; Elche has a chance of winning a surprise away game with only 20%, and it depends on Alaves' serious mistakes and his own set-piece finals.

5. Conclusion

There are no absolute strong men in this relegation life-and-death battle. Both sides have fatal shortcomings: Alaves has obvious home advantage but has many loopholes in defense, and Elche is resilient in defense but is trapped by injuries and offense paralysis. For both teams, 1 point may not be enough to get rid of the risk of relegation, but the loss will fall into the abyss. The outcome of the game may depend on the details - whether Alaves can seize Elche's defense injury, and whether Elche can use set pieces to create miracles. The cruelty of the relegation battle lies in this. Every offense and defense is related to the fate of the season, which is the unique charm of the mid- and lower-level matchup of La Liga.