Reject 140 million, goodbye to the Warriors, Cole made it clear that it will be good for both sides if you leave

The trading market in the 2025 NBA offseason is surging due to the radical operations of many giant teams. The potential flow of superstars and the renewal game of young players together constitute the main theme of this summer, and the league structure may face a comprehensive reshuffle. The following is an analysis from three dimensions: key player trends, team game strategies and market chain reactions:

1. Top star battle: Antetokounmpo and Durant triggered the market

1. Antetokounmpo's "three-choice-one" game

The Warriors' gamble: The Warriors have been revealed to have formulated a 7-for-1 plan (Kuminga, Moody, Pojemsky + 3 first rounds), trying to form a double MVP combination of "Curry + Antetokounmpo". But the plan needs to match Antetokounmpo's annual salary of $54.29 million, which may involve sending Butler or Greene, which poses a risk of destroying existing chemical reactions.

Rockets' young asset offensive: The Rockets are centered on Jaylen Green and Jabbarry Smith Jr., and become the leader with four first-round picks. Its Texas tax exemption policy and the complementarity between Shin Kyung and Antetokounmpo are seen as key advantages, and third-party teams (such as Magic) may intervene to receive Kumingga.

The Lakers' Dark Line Layout: Although the Lakers have not directly participated in the competition, if Antetokounmpo's trading market stagnates, it may turn to chasing Durant, using players such as Rivers + draft picks to create a super luxurious lineup of "Doncic + James + Durant".

2. Durant's departure chain reaction

The Suns were forced to rebuild due to their sluggish record, and Durant's trading value is still at a high level. Both the Lakers and the Rockets have proposed multiple first-round + young player plans, among which the Rockets' offer (Shepard + Smith + 3 first-round) is closer to the needs of the Suns' reconstruction, while the Lakers are trying to free up salary space through three-party transactions.

2. Lakers and Rockets' reinforcement strategy: double-line upgrades between inside and outside

1. The Lakers' inside reinforcement priority

was eliminated by the Timberwolves in the first round and exposed their shortcomings in the inside. The management targeted defensive centers such as Capela and Clarkston. Potential plans include sending out Vanderbilt + draft picks in exchange for the Knicks' Mitchell Robinson.

If you cannot trade superstars, renewing Hayes or introducing Kevin Rooney as a low-cost option to maintain tactical flexibility around Doncic and James.

2. The Rockets' "All-Star+" blueprint

In addition to Antetokounmpo, the Rockets also evaluate the possibility of Durant's trading and plan to accelerate reconstruction with the future first round pick (including the Suns 2025/2027/2029). The young core Shen Jing's ability to support is regarded as an important weight for Antetokounmpo.

If the superstar trade is blocked, the Rockets may turn to pursue three-point shooters such as Cameron Johnson to fill the firepower gap on the outside.

3. Harden and Irving's trends: Undercurrents in the free market

1. Harden's contract renewal is in a dilemma with the Clippers

Harden's average of 22.6 points + 8.7 assists in the Clippers won the trust of the management, and is expected to renew the contract with a three-year, $120 million. However, Leonard's frequent injuries and Powell's decline in form forced the Clippers to consider introducing soon-to-be-fighting power such as Bogdan Bogdanovic.

2. Irving's crossroads

Irving holds a $44 million player option. The Mavericks hope to renew their contract until 2027, but Cuban lacks confidence in Doncic's lineup after the trade. If Irving chooses to leave the team, the Heat and Magic may become potential next players.

4. "Breakup Economics" between Kumingga and the Warriors

1. The difficult choice under the shackles of salary

The total salary of the Warriors has reached US$170 million. The renewal of Kumingga (annual salary of 30 million is expected) will trigger the second rich line (207 million), facing huge luxury tax pressure. If the quotations of other teams are matched, the salary space will be completely locked in the next two years.

2. Trading path analysis

Sign first and then exchange: The most likely plan is to trade Vucevic + Lonzo Ball with the Bulls, or exchange Wiggins with the Heat, but due to the "basic annual compensation clause", the actual exchange is only half of the contract.

Let go directly: Nets, Jazz and other teams can sign Kumingga naked, while the Warriors get nothing. Management prefers to recycle assets through transactions to avoid repeating Poole's mistakes.

5. Market chain reaction and pattern forecast

1. Competition in the West intensifies

If the Warriors lose Kumingga and fail to win Antetokounmpo, their offensive and defensive system will rely on the veteran core, and their competitiveness may decline sharply; if the Rockets successfully introduce Antetokounmpo, they will instantly join the championship echelon; the Lakers are expected to return to the Western Conference Finals after strengthening the inside.

2. Eastern Power Reconstruction

If the Bucks trade Antetokounmpo, they will enter the reconstruction completely. The Celtics may trade Holiday due to a serious injury to Tatum's Achilles tendon. The Knicks, Magic and other teams took the opportunity to rise.

3. Opportunities for Mesozoic players

Cameron Johnson, Clarkston and other role players have escalated due to the demand for multiple teams, and the trading value has increased, which may become the key to the championship puzzle.

Conclusion

The 2025 offseason is destined to be the most disruptive trading window in the NBA in recent years: the whereabouts of Antetokounmpo and Durant will directly define the championship map for the next three years, the renewal of Harden and Irving affects the fate of the midstream team, and the departure of Kumingga marks the final dissipation of the Warriors' dynasty afterglow. As the game between the teams becomes fierce, fans need to tighten their seat belts to welcome this "golden and Yuan storm" that reshapes the league order.