What is the level of Lakers substitute Nick Smith Jr.?

Come to the Lakers big stage if you have a dream. The player who became famous this time with the dream of becoming famous is Nick Smith Jr. In the game against the Portland Trail Blazers on November 4, in the unfavorable situation of the absence of the three core members of James, Doncic, and Reeves, he fought through illness and stepped forward. He helped the team win with an outstanding performance of 25 points, 6 assists and 2 steals. After the game, he won praise from the entire Lakers team and opponents. So what is his strength? Today's star test will bring you the data analysis of Nick Smith Jr.

In fact, this is not the first time Smith has had a chance to play this season. As early as October 28, when the team played against the Trail Blazers for the first time, he got 20 minutes of playing time due to the absence of Doncic and Smart. However, in that game he performed well. He is currently inefficient, with a plus-minus value of -13. At that time, Lakers fans still rated him as "good and independent", but only 6 days later, he was impressive. According to the post-game report and interview, he carefully watched the game video after the team lost to the Trail Blazers for the first time, summed up experience and lessons, and came prepared this time and seized the opportunity. He will become famous in one battle. After the game, Lakers fans were like Wang Baoqiang who drank too much and said the wrong thing in "Mr. Hello Tree". He said apologetically: "There were too many people outside just now. I was wrong. I kneel down for you!"

Lakers player Reeves knows the ability of Smith Jr. best. Both of them are Ah A native of Kansas, Reeves’ home in Newark is only 130 kilometers away from Smith Jr.’s home in Jacksonville, an hour and a half’s drive away. They are half-townsmen. Smith Jr. was a well-known athlete throughout Arkansas in high school, winning state championships for many years in a row and winning the honor of the state’s best player.

When he graduated from high school in 2022, his ESPN comprehensive rating was 94, ranking third among the top 100 high school students in the United States, only lower than Lively Jr. and Darrick Whiteside. He received recruiting invitations from all major universities in the United States, and announced in a live broadcast that he would join the University of Arkansas in his hometown. This was regarded by local fans as a sign of loyalty. Reeves also Monk, a fellow player who was also a Lakers player who pursued his dream on the big stage, has a similar experience to Smith Jr. He was also a once-in-a-decade talented high school student in Arkansas. ESPN scored 96 points overall and ranked 9th among the top 100 high school students in the United States. However, because he rejected the University of Arkansas and chose the University of Kentucky, angry Arkansas fans burned his jersey and issued death threats.

Smith Jr. will have an absolute core position at the University of Arkansas and has a bright future. However, there are unforeseen circumstances. He suffered a serious knee injury at the beginning of the season and missed half of the season. After returning from the injury, his performance was very average. He averaged 12.5 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 1.7 assists in 26 minutes per game. His three-point shooting percentage was only 33.8%, and in the three games of March Madness that attracted the most attention, his performance was a mess. In the first game, he scored 6 points on 2 of 10 shots.

Now let’s look back and forth at his last draft report in June 2023 (slightly abridged). The overall score was 92 points. The draft template was Jamal Crawford, and he was expected to be ranked 18-19 in the first round of the draft.

Advantages: A combo guard, 1.88 meters tall, weighing 84 kilograms, with NBA-level wingspan and athletic ability, extremely fast, and the potential to gain muscle. He likes to score (averaging 12.5 points per game in his freshman season), and he scores He is very versatile, especially good at holding the ball and shooting after breaking through. He can score continuously when in good condition (scoring more than 20 points in 5 of the 17 college games). He is considered a "microwave-type" scorer. He should have no problem breaking through the defense; he has good quality. He has good ball-handling ability and a quick first step. He is also very stable in mid-range shooting. He can put pressure on defenders with pull-up jumpers. He can also use floaters in the paint. Occasionally, he uses his deft skills and touch to complete some wonderful layups under the basket. He is not afraid of it. As for long-range shooting, he has also shown some long-range shooting ability this season (averaging more than 4 three-pointers per game and hitting 1.4 goals). He can attack with and without the ball, can actively cut in or find open shooting opportunities, and has all the qualities to become an efficient shooting guard.

Has excellent defensive potential, has enough speed and wingspan to interfere with passes, and is a threatening stealer. With his speed and active offensive style, he is very suitable for a fast-paced offensive system; as a fast-break player, he has good development prospects.

Disadvantages: Insufficient physical confrontation ability, slightly thin physique; need to increase muscle, as a defender, it is easy to be broken by opponents, offensive finishing ability is relatively struggling (39.6% inside shooting rate), shot selection needs to be improved, he often shoots from mid-range but the shooting rate is very low, a better choice should be to transfer the ball or attack the basket, the three-point shooting rate is very unstable (33.8%), often changed when being interfered by defensive players Although he is listed as a combo guard, he is not an excellent organizer (average 1.7 assists per game). When holding the ball, he usually only passes the ball after the defense shrinks. At this stage, his game feeling and basketball IQ are relatively average. He often forces shots and tries to complete some unreasonable passes. Apart from scoring, he has little impact on the game; his rebounding contribution is limited. When he shoots inaccurately, his role on the field is limited. He suffered a knee injury. After his comeback, he has been highly expected, but has never been able to find the rhythm of the game..

If you watched his game against the Trail Blazers yesterday, you will find that his advantages in the draft report have been verified one by one. He has shown active offensive ability in shooting after holding the ball in the pick-and-roll and breaking through mid-range shots. But if you watch In the first game against the Trail Blazers on October 28, we will find that his shortcomings are verified one by one, including insufficient defensive ability and unreasonable passing choices. To put it simply, he is a mental knife. If he is in form, he can play crazy on the offensive end. On the contrary, if he feels bad, it will have a negative effect on the court.

Looking at it now from God's perspective, the scouting report at that time was spot on. Smith Jr. declared his participation in the draft immediately after his freshman year, and believed that with his reputation in high school, he would be easily selected with a high pick in the first round. He didn't even Participating in the rookie joint tryout, only first-round lottery picks dared to be so confident, but in the end reality gave him a hard blow. His name was not mentioned before the 20th pick in the draft, and he began to panic. It was not until the Charlotte Hornets selected him with the 27th pick in the first round that he burst into tears with excitement.

Next, let’s take a look at his performance in the NBA. Last season, he played a total of 60 games with the Hornets and started 27 games. He averaged 22.8 minutes per game. To be fair, the Hornets gave him ample opportunities to improve, and this data sample size is also for reference.

His biggest selling point is his scoring ability. He is valuable only when he contributes on the offensive end. Last season, he averaged 9.9 points per game. Among them, 46% of the points scored inside and 54% of the points scored outside the three-point line. He is a player who can play both inside and outside. His own ball scoring accounted for 41% and his assists scored 59%. This shows that the Hornets are training him both with and without the ball to see which aspect he is better at. The most important thing we have to look at is efficiency.

First of all, let’s talk about ball-handling offense. He averaged 5.9 ball-handling breakthroughs per game last season, with a total of 356 ball-handling breakthroughs, ranking 113th in the league. He made 169 breakthrough attempts and hit 75 goals with a shooting rate of only 44.4%, which is extremely high. Inefficient level. Currently, the breakthrough shooting rate of the league's first-rate attackers such as Antetokounmpo and Alexander is above 55%, and 50% is the qualified line. He was blocked 23 times in 169 breakthrough attempts, and the blocking rate was 13.6%. It can be said that he cannot be counted on to score breakthroughs with the ball.

He took 80 three-point shots with the ball and hit 26 with a shooting rate of 32.5%, which is also an unqualified level. He took 155 mid-range shots with the ball and hit 67 with a shooting rate of 43.2%.

Then look at the off-ball aspect. Last season, he took 225 three-pointers and hit 77 of them, with a field goal percentage of 34.2%, which was only barely qualified. Moreover, when Doncic, James, and Reeves all After returning, the Lakers' role players can only play without the ball if they want to survive in the team. We can look at the Lakers' role players' three-point shooting after receiving the ball last season. Knecter 37.4%, Hachimura 41.7%, and Vincent 37.2%. , Finney-Smith 40.2%, Goodwin 41.4%, Reddish 29.5%, Vanderbilt 28.1%. Through comparison, you can see that Smith’s three-point shooting percentage after receiving the ball is only better than Reddish and Vanderbilt. , and these two people provide great value on the defensive end. Currently, Smith Jr. has made a very low shooting rate of 2 of 7 three-pointers after receiving the ball in 3 games. If he still cannot improve his touch, he will have little chance of playing when the team has a complete lineup in the future.

In terms of organization, he did a very good job against the Trail Blazers. As soon as he came on the court, he organized the team's offense very smoothly. Last season with the Hornets, he averaged 45 catches per game, 33 passes per game, 2.4 assists per game, and 2.4 pass assists per game. The offense ratio of 7.3% is at an average level. In addition, there are 1.4 turnovers per game, the assist-to-turnover ratio is as high as 1.7 (1 turnover per 1.7 assists), and the organizational efficiency is average. After the return of Doncic, Reeves, and James, plus Smart, it is basically not his turn to organize.

Finally, there is the defensive aspect. With the current core lineup configuration of the Lakers, Doncic, Reeves, and James cannot be guarded. If you want to play with them, it is best to be guardable. Smith's defense is very poor. Last season, his opponents averaged 4.1 goals in 8 shots per game in front of him, with a shooting percentage of 51.2%. Opponents were under his defense. The average field goal percentage increased by 5.6 percentage points, which is at the same defensive level as Reeves. This alone makes it difficult for him to match Reeves in the transition period. In the win against the Trail Blazers, the Portland team did not focus on targeting his defensive weaknesses due to lack of preparation. Even so, Portland players took 5 shots in front of him and hit 4 goals. If there is more targeted, he will definitely become a defensive cotton field.

Finally, through the data summary, although Smith Jr. played an extremely brilliant performance, his future road with the Lakers is still full of bumps. He is only 21 years old. He has no retreat. He is doing his best to continue his NBA career. The greatest charm of the NBA is that countless players have made the impossible possible through unremitting efforts and constant competition.

Lakers head coach Redick once said: "I have always emphasized the importance of data analysis and tactical strategies in the past, but when I actually coached the NBA, I discovered that any data analysis and tactical analysis are not as important as playing hard! If you try your best every night, you have a chance to win. If you don't, you will definitely lose." So let us continue to look forward to Smith's hard work and enterprising performance.